Global sales of cancer drugs will grow at a compounded annual rate of 12 to 15 percent, reaching $75 to $80 billion by 2012, according to a new forecast by
IMS Health (NYSE: RX), the world’s leading provider of market intelligence to the pharmaceutical and healthcare industries. The growth rate for oncology products will be nearly double the forecasted growth rate of the global pharmaceutical market, which grew at a 6.4 percent pace in 2007.
Contributing to global market growth is the increasing number of cancer patients on chemotherapy in Europe, Japan and North America, and evidence that more patients in the emerging markets are gaining access to modern targeted therapies. IMS also predicts in its annual forecast that growth will moderate over the next five years, reflecting financial constraints of payers, tapering growth of current blockbusters, fewer new blockbuster medications, and the loss of exclusivity of four oncology drugs with annual sales exceeding $1 billion. In 2008, sales of oncology products will exceed $48 billion, contributing nearly 17 percent of global pharmaceutical sales growth this year.
“Double-digit sales growth in oncology drugs will be fueled by increased use of targeted therapeutic agents introduced over the past 10 years, along with first-time innovations coming to the market and longer treatment periods for growing numbers of patients,” said Titus Plattel, IMS vice president for Oncology. “Recent innovations have improved quality of life, delayed disease progression and helped prolong survival for patients battling different types of cancer — including breast cancer, colon cancer, lymphoma, leukemia and kidney cancer. In addition, approximately 25 to 30 new anti-cancer agents are expected to be approved for a variety of new indications, helping to expand the treated patient population.”
The IMS 2008 Global Oncology Forecast identifies the following key market dynamics influencing market growth through 2012:
• Budgetary constraints in major markets lead to increased rigor for selecting targeted therapies.
• Improved screening, diagnosis and access to innovative medicines in the developing world.
• New products and combination therapies.
• Growth contribution of the top markets falls.
The
IMS Global Oncology Forecast™ is the leading annual indicator of sales of oncology medicines and excludes the costs of specialized drug delivery such as intravenous therapy, intraperitoneal therapy, and other medical costs. The forecast is developed by IMS’s team of oncology experts — supported by the company’s robust, global information assets, advanced analytics and consulting capabilities — helping clients to demonstrate the clinical and economic benefits of new therapies, while offering unmatched insights and understanding into the global oncology marketplace.
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