Breaking News From Pharma & Bio Ingredients
U.S. Drug Market Expected to Grow Faster in 2006
Posted on 2005-10-27 09:00:00
Global pharmaceutical market growth will remain flat in 2005 at 7-8 percent, and will grow 6-7 percent growth in 2006, with total market size reaching U.S. $640-650 billion, according to IMS Health.
“Several key market events are expected to shape the pharmaceutical industry in 2006,” said Murray Aitken, senior vice president, Corporate Strategy, IMS Health. “These include the introduction of the Medicare drug benefit in the U.S., expected patent loss and generic introduction for six blockbuster products, and continued efforts by local governments to reduce drug spending and manage patient access to branded pharmaceuticals. While some pharmaceutical companies are taking the necessary steps to address these areas, others must start planning now to ensure continued growth and success.”
The U.S. market, which accounts for 43 percent of pharmaceutical sales worldwide, will continue to fuel growth in 2006. IMS forecasts the U.S. market to grow at an 8-9 percent pace, up from an expected growth of 6-7 percent in 2005. Increased access by U.S. seniors to lower-cost medications through Medicare Part D, and a rebound from the impact of Cox-2 product recalls and safety issues will help support this higher level of growth.
Growth for the five major European markets—France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom—is forecast to be 4-5 percent in 2006, down slightly from this year. Expansion of the reference price system and mechanisms to encourage generics use are expected to impact growth. This will be partially offset by the higher spending on public health and disease awareness programs and the launch of innovative products. While there is a slight downturn among the major European countries, the largest markets in Central and Eastern Europe can expect double-digit growth in 2006 as healthcare systems are modernized and GDP growth helps finance increasing demand.
The Japan market will experience a downturn in 2006, with forecasts showing from 0-1 percent growth, down from 5-6 percent growth expected in 2005. This reflects the impact of restrictive National Health Insurance (NHI) reimbursement listing and biennial price cuts.
China continues to emerge as a significant market. Growth will remain robust at 17-18 percent and the market size will reach $13 – 14 billion in 2006. Strong economic growth and the continued implementation of the national reimbursement drug list will sustain high market growth, offset somewhat by price cuts and tighter cost-containment measures.
Among the major therapy classes, oncology will register the highest global growth rate of 17-18 percent in 2006, fueled by the rapid uptake of some recently launched breakthrough products that include Avastin, Erbitux, Alimta and Tarceva, and increased patient access to these innovative treatments. The statins class will show growth of 7-8 percent despite the increasing availability of generic forms, as evidence of their efficacy and as clinical guidelines expand the potential patient population that would benefit from these treatments. Above-average growth is also expected in the angiotensin-II, platelet aggregation inhibitors and osteoporosis classes, fueled by the uptake of new products and availability of new clinical evidence.
Subscribe via RSS
